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How To Become an Expert the Hard Way

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How To Become an Expert the Hard Way

We underestimate the effort needed to become an expert. And overestimate the talent needed.

Navin Kabra
Jan 31, 2022
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How To Become an Expert the Hard Way

futureiq.substack.com

In my last article, I talked about “The Dip”—the difficult, depressing period you encounter when doing anything substantial—and how everyone should know about this important concept. Today, I want to talk about two additional aspects related to it that people miss:

  • Applicability: The dip shows up in many areas of your life

  • Effort: The effort needed to get past the dip is far more than most people realize. A common mistake people make when they’re in the dip is to think that they lack the talent or inborn abilities to succeed. But usually talented people seem talented because they put in far more effort during the dip than you would imagine

The Dip is everywhere

A number of people responded to the last article citing other areas where this concept applies. For example, angel investor Krishna points out that it applies to startups:

Twitter avatar for @finkrishna
finkrishna @finkrishna
@NGKabra applies equally to many start-ups i know... early shallow gain, long, long, hard slog followed by rewards for those that push through the grinding slog without quitting
9:47 AM ∙ Dec 22, 2021
2Likes1Retweet

Dr Bhooshan Shukla pointed out that the problem of “giving up too easily” and thus flitting from one half-finished project to another is worse for people with ADHD. (And yes, adults can also have ADHD, and a diagnosis+treatment can change their life):

Twitter avatar for @docbhooshan
𝓓𝓻 𝓑𝓱𝓸𝓸𝓼𝓱𝓪𝓷 𝓢𝓱𝓾𝓴𝓵𝓪 𝓜.𝓓. @docbhooshan
@NGKabra Thanks for writing this post. As psychiatrist, I meet several young people with this difficulty(including the man in the mirror). It is worth taking Adult ADHD test and discussing with own parents if "need for constant stimulation" was a childhood trait. Help is available.
10:11 AM ∙ Dec 22, 2021

Utkarsh pointed to this different graph for the dip which captures the journey in more detail and suggests that this happens when creating anything great:

Twitter avatar for @utsengar
Utkarsh Sengar @utsengar
@NGKabra @ThisIsSethsBlog Same concept has been presented in many ways. I’m sure there is a Paul Graham post on this topic too. Very valuable advice though.
Image
6:02 AM ∙ Dec 22, 2021

Meeta pointed out that it applies in relationships too. Many marriages go through a rough patch during years 6 to 10. The plot of most romance movies follows this same emotional journey. I could argue that the classic structure of most stories (setup-conflict-resolution) also embodies this same curve.

Speaking of movies and stories in media, reader Mrunalini commented on how, as a culture, we try to ignore the dip and focus too much on the final result:

We live in the era where only a final reward is celebrated. To reach a goal, there are various dips a person goes through, but the person is recognised for goal achieving and that specific moment

This is something that even The Gita tries to dissuade us from.

Effort Shock

We mostly celebrate success and the stories that make the biggest impressions are the “overnight success” stories. We manage to gloss over the fact that most “overnight success” actually involves 10+ years of struggle.

Of course, many media stories do mention the struggle before the success. But in those stories, the dip gets over in two paragraphs (or half an hour if it’s a movie). They never really manage to convey how long and gloomy the dip is in real life.

These stories about the struggle before success are possibly making things worse, according to David Wong who wrote How “The Karate Kid” Ruined The Modern World:

I think The Karate Kid ruined the modern world.

Not just that movie, but all of the movies like it (you certainly can't let the Rocky sequels escape blame). Basically any movie with a training montage.

You know what I'm talking about; the main character is very bad at something, then there is a sequence in the middle of the film set to upbeat music that shows him practicing. When it's done, he's an expert.

You have seen this sequence (the “training montage”) in many movies. For a recent example, see the “Haanikarak Bapu” song from Dangal.

Twitter avatar for @vgr
Venkatesh Rao (田 ) @vgr
“A montage is a movie apologizing for reality” Why can’t I come up with lines like this
5:23 AM ∙ Feb 6, 2021
38Likes4Retweets

No matter how many movies you’ve seen about the struggle, the actual effort required to succeed in any endeavour always comes as a shock to people. So much so that there is a name for this: “Effort Shock”

Twitter avatar for @NGKabra
Navin Kabra @NGKabra
The phrase "effort shock" refers to the fact people are shocked when they find out how much effort it takes an expert to produce something (eg a cartoon). People underestimate the effort by 10x or 20x. cracked.com/article_18544_…
8:14 AM ∙ Jan 10, 2020
12Likes2Retweets

Do remember though, if you’re able to overcome the Effort Shock then the resultant rewards you get are also significantly higher than what you imagine. @vgr calls this Reward Shock. Outsized efforts do result in outsized rewards. This is the way.

The important takeaway from this isn’t “this is too hard”. Rather, I want you to think “all that’s required is effort (which I can put in, as opposed to innate ability which is not under my control).” Sure, there is a small probability that you don’t have the innate ability that is required. For example, you are unlikely to be a basketball star if you’re 5’3” (but even that has an exception). But chances are far higher that you’re just giving up too early because you didn’t realize how much effort is needed to get through the dip.

How do you know when to work hard and when to give up? Reader Shamik suggested using Optimal Stopping Theory. For example, if you’re going to spend 2 years looking for a partner in an arranged marriage situation, then the solution to the Secretary Problem suggests that you should reject everyone you meet in the first 9 months (the first 1/e fraction or 37% of the total) and after that select the first person who’s better than everyone you met in the first 9 months. That always seemed a bit artificial to me, but Shamik feels it is applicable in real life:

Have you faced the dip in your life? Did you successfully overcome it? What helped you during that time? Do you have any examples of effort shock or reward shock from your life? Please leave a comment because your example might change some youngster’s life

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How To Become an Expert the Hard Way

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Shweta
Jan 31, 2022·edited Jan 31, 2022Liked by Navin Kabra

If two cents from a person who is currently in "The Dip" and in the process of overcoming the "Effort Shock" count then here goes :

Sometimes the effort shock comes from the assumption that, to succeed in one particular thing you need to be "really focussed" on one thing. Let me give you an analogy of weight loss. In 2017, I had successfully reduced 36 kgs, gained most of it later, but I will share the loss journey for now.(My current Dip is not related to weight - well, yes, but mostly my current Dip is deeper and is on a higher priority). One thinks that a good clean diet is all one needs to focus on. Truth is, one needs to do multiple things (all of them right) to succeed at something, in this case - proper water intake, plenty of exercise, exercising control whenever you see junk food, conflict with your inner-self on a daily basis despite what the scale shows, and above all discipline. Even if one card falls out of place for a week, the whole card castle collapses and you need to start over. The only thing that saved the day for me was - resilience. And that is something your article emphasizes on. A recent movie that speaks galore about this particular trait is : Rudy - https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0108002/ , based on a real-life story of Daniel Eugene "Rudy" Ruettiger. Clearly, it missed the list of movies of training montages as it focuses more on the Effort Shock factor and less on the dramatic events that follow. The movie has a training montage scene I guess, but it does little justice to its presence. The whole movie rather does the trick. Sometimes resilience can be bordered on the verge of madness, another thing portrayed in the movie, but sometimes it works wonders. Hoping it does for me again.

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